Gas up 127% y/y, German power crashes on wind, and Australia's biggest hub really did halve in size
TTF gas hit €75.06/MWh on 7 September — a fourth straight weekly gain — while German day-ahead power fell to €42.14/MWh on 4 September on a wind surge, briefly touching ‑€19/MWh. Last week's unverifiable headline about Australia's largest green hydrogen hub is now confirmed: the Asian/Australian Renewable Energy Hub cuts from 26 GW to 15 GW and drops on-site ammonia. On water, Moeve Carteia's position is better described — a reopened public consultation, not a fresh filing, and a capex figure now stated at €3.067 bn — but still without a granted or denied water right, for a fourth straight edition.
News feed 1–7 Sep
resolved 2 Sep
Asian/Australian Renewable Energy Hub confirmed cut from 26 GW to 15 GW, reverting to its 2020-approved scope; on-site ammonia dropped for direct power/hydrogen sales to Pilbara miners and data centres.
ABO Energy and the City of Oulu (Finland) sign a cooperation agreement for a green hydrogen plant at Pyyryväinen, scaling up to 600 MW across 2–3 phases — a pre-FID step.
German day-ahead power crashes to €42.14/MWh (lowest since June), briefly ‑€19/MWh at 14:00 CEST, on a ~50 GW wind forecast — decoupled from TTF's climb.
ITM Power's FY2026 results reportedly dated 14 September — single trade-press source, unconfirmed on ITM's own investor page.
TTF gas hits €75.06/MWh, up 127.0% year-on-year — a fourth consecutive weekly gain; Strait of Hormuz risk unchanged, no diplomatic development found this week.
reframed
Moeve Carteia's "resubmission" clarified as a reopened public consultation, not a fresh filing; capex now stated at €3.067 bn over two ~34-month phases; transmission line trimmed to 1.11 km. Still no water-rights grant or denial.
02Prices and costs
Gas and German power decoupled this week — the chart below indexes both to their W36 baseline (=100) so the divergence reads at a glance.
Input costs, indexed to last week (W36 = 100)
Spanish figure is a PVPC regulated-tariff proxy, not OMIE's own day-ahead print — treat as directional. German YoY of ‑22% (single-sourced) is not adopted here.
LCOH by region / route stale · 6th week, no refresh
ACER (Jan–Oct 2025) and Platts (2 Oct 2025) prints — next ACER report expected Dec 2026. HYDRIX / Hydex / Platts / Argus indices: COULD NOT RETRIEVE, sixth straight edition.
European Hydrogen Bank — auction 4 (IF26)
€500m total (Topic 1 €350m RFNBO-only + Topic 2 €150m) · ceiling €4.00/kg · ≥75% non-Chinese electrolyser content · max grant €175m/€150m · min size 5 MW. Consultation closed 24 Aug. Feedback webinar: 8 Sep 2026, 10:30–12:00 CEST — happens tomorrow relative to this edition; outcomes not yet known. Formal call for proposals still slated for year-end 2026.
03Spain and the EU
Spain's 2030 ambition gap, unchanged this week — FID-backed capacity is 4.5% of the PNIEC target.
Spain 2030 pipeline vs target vs delivered
Project status
| Project | Location | MW | Water | This week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moeve Onuba | Palos de la Frontera, Huelva | 300 (+100–105 opt.) | ② + ⑤ | No pre-event coverage; groundbreaking fixed 17 Sep 2026. |
| Moeve Carteia | San Roque, Cádiz | 1,000 | ⑧ / a precario | Reframed as reopened consultation; capex now €3.067bn/2 phases. No grant/denial, 4th edition running. |
| Repsol Cartagena | Escombreras, Murcia | 100 | ④ (unverified) | DIA date pinned: signed 7 Jul, BORM 16 Jul. Water text still unlocated, 6th edition. |
| H2 La Joya | Antequera, Málaga | 250 | ⑤ | AAI resolution still pending. >2,000-alegaciones claim recurs, not adopted (~300 + COAG stands). |
| Iberdrola Puertollano II | Puertollano, Ciudad Real | 200 | ⑧ | Rechecked — genuinely NOT DISCLOSED. Only a PV-supply DIA found. |
| Proyecto Catalina | Aragón | 500→2,000 (H₂) | — | No movement; FID still expected late 2027/2028. |
Funding & corridors
PERTE ERHA / Auctions-as-a-Service: no round 3 found; last award €233.4m/3 projects, 4 Aug.
H2Med / BarMar / CelZa: no update. CEF Energy's €600m call closes 30 Sep 2026 — 23 days out.
EU policy
RFNBO delegated act review: still slipping to "autumn 2026."
Infringements package found (CSRD, Work-Life Balance, Insolvency, RED III recast, RoHS) — Spain named only for CSRD/Work-Life Balance, not hydrogen transposition; date not confirmed as September-specific.
Ley del Hidrógeno: anteproyecto still unpublished, 7+ months after announcement.
04Germany
10 GW target for 2030; ~1.9% installed today. No Q3/2026 EWI Wasserstoff-Monitor edition found yet.
Germany 2030 pipeline vs target vs delivered
Project scoreboard
| Project | Operator | Location | MW | t/yr | Status | Water |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GET H2 Nukleus | RWE | Lingen, NDS | ~200 → 300 | 49,000 | No update; standing: first delivery to Marl (4 Aug) | ② wet |
| REFHYNE I | Shell | Wesseling, NRW | 10 | ~1,300 | Operating; no update | ⑧ |
| REFHYNE II | Shell | Wesseling, NRW | 100 | 16,000 | Building, COD 2027 | ⑧ |
| Lingen Green H2 | bp | Lingen, NDS | 100 | ≤11,000 | Building, on schedule | ⑧ |
| Leuna PEM | Linde | Leuna, S-A | 24 (+5) | ~3,200 | No update | ⑧ |
| SALCOS | Salzgitter | Salzgitter, NDS | 100 | 9,000 | Commissioning underway | ⑧ |
| tkH2Steel | thyssenkrupp | Duisburg-Walsum | — | ~145,000 | Tender still paused | ⑧ |
| Clean H2 Coastline | EWE | Emden, NDS | 320 | — | Building; no update | ④ dry cooling |
| Bad Lauchstädt | VNG/Uniper/ONTRAS | S-A | 30 | ~2,500–3,000 | No new update | ④ (vol. undisclosed) |
| Schwäbisch Gmünd | Lhyfe | BW | 10 | ~1,460 | Operating; no update | ⑧ |
| Green Wilhelmshaven | Uniper | Wilhelmshaven | 200 | — | Pre-FID, quiet | ⑧ |
| Lubmin cluster | PtX/KGAL et al. | M-V | 1,700+ | 160,000 | No FID — blocked on RED III | ⑧ |
| HydroHub Fenne | Iqony | Völklingen | 53 | 8,200 | Cancelled Nov 2025 | — |
| HySCALE100 | Heide consortium | Heide, S-H | ≤2,100 | — | Cancelled | — |
| HH2E | — | Lubmin/Borna/Thierbach | ~4,000 pipeline | — | Insolvent; no update | — |
No newly-announced project and no new cancellation this week. ArcelorMittal Duisburg recap coverage (5 Sep) reconfirms the blast-furnace phase-out by Oct 2027 — the underlying decision dates to 19 Jun 2025.
Kernnetz & policy
Wasserstoff-Kernnetz: "just under 6 GW" reserved (3rd Marktinformationspaket, 4 Aug) still stands; no 4th package found; ~400 km operational.
Klimaschutzverträge round 2: deadline extended two days, to 9 Sep 2026 — single-sourced to the programme's own portal.
Installed vs target
181 MW (EWI, to 31 Mar) / 193 MW (dena, to Apr) installed against the 10 GW 2030 target — about 1.9%. 1,271 MW at FID/under construction; >7.2 GW planned but no FID. No Q3/2026 EWI edition published yet.
05Hydrogen refuelling network
Germany's public network has been shrinking even as heavy-duty 350-bar capacity is built — read net change and bar-pressure split, not headcount alone.
Germany — public stations by type baseline Jan 2026, 8 months stale
No fresher figure found this week. h2.live updates live but exposes no fetchable static aggregate — COULD NOT RETRIEVE a current numeric snapshot. Spain and Europe aggregates: COULD NOT RETRIEVE — no operational count found for either, only Spain's 2030 target (below).
Spain / Andalusia targets
Spain: HVR Energy target — 75 stations by 2030, profitability threshold at 55 by 2028 (single CEO interview, 15 Apr 2026).
Andalusia: Córdoba first (finalising admin procedures) · Granada moved up to before end-2026 (single-sourced) · Campo de Gibraltar 2027.
HUB LA ISLA H2 (Dos Hermanas)
Verification attempt made this week — inconclusive. No coverage newer than the 3 Oct 2025 "absolutely complete" PR was found; a Feb 2024 background piece confirms substantial slippage from the original 2024 target but gives no current status. Neither upgraded nor downgraded.
AFIR
Unchanged — 31 December 2026 review deadline stands; EAFO's next data refresh (15 Jan 2027) lands after it.
06Electrolysers
Manufacturing runs at a fraction of installed capacity — the gap between what factories can make and what projects actually order.
Manufacturing: nameplate vs utilised output BNEF est., illustrative
Indexed to nameplate capacity = 100. Global utilisation running at ≤10% of nameplate; no fresher figure or factory-level change found this week.
Technology comparison standing reference
| Tech | Efficiency | Lifetime | CAPEX $/kW | Critical material | Readiness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alkaline | 50–78 kWh/kg | 60–90k h | 500–1,400 | Nickel | Mature, dominant |
| PEM | 50–83 kWh/kg | 50–80k h | 1,100–1,800 | Iridium, platinum | Mature; fast dynamic response |
| SOEC | 38–45 kWh/kg* | 20–40k h | 2,000–3,000+ | Rare earths | Early commercial; exits this year |
| AEM | ~50–65 kWh/kg | early data only | 1,000–1,500 est. | Low PGM loading | Pre-/early commercial |
*with external heat input. RFNBO hourly matching favours PEM/AEM's fast turndown over alkaline's slower ramp.
OEM order books and health
| OEM | This week |
|---|---|
| ITM Power | Results date reportedly set for 14 Sep — single trade source, unconfirmed on ITM's own investor page as of this edition. |
| thyssenkrupp nucera | No new development; a 2 Sep piece re-presents the 12 Aug guidance cut (EBIT €‑105m to ‑75m) in a way that risks being read as new. |
| Nel ASA | No interim news; CEO succession still open, Q3 results 21 Oct next checkpoint. |
| Electric Hydrogen / Perdaman Helios | No new technical/financial detail; still paywalled beyond the ~20 Aug vendor announcement. |
| Sunfire, John Cockerill, Siemens Energy, Accelera, Topsoe, Bloom, Ohmium, Enapter, HydrogenPro | No dated news this week. |
| Chinese OEMs (LONGi, Sinopec, Peric, Sungrow, Envision) | No dated news this week. |
Project usage — Moeve Onuba, RWE Lingen, bp Castellón, Orica Hunter Valley, NEOM: no new supply contracts found. EU auction 4's ≥75% non-Chinese content rule: no Commission reaction or industry pushback found this week.
07Water intake and climate-relevant screening
27 hydrogen projects screened. The disclosure gap is jurisdictional, not sector-wide — Spain's permitting procedure forces publication; Germany's UVP process buries the same facts.
Disclosure by jurisdiction — share of screened projects
No full re-tally performed this week — a standing recommendation carried forward again for the next edition with dedicated research budget.
Flagship project water positions
| Project | Country | Source | m³/yr | L/kg | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moeve Onuba | ES | ②+⑤ Chanza-Piedras + regenerated | 2.9M + 590k | — | verified |
| Moeve Carteia | ES | ⑧ a precario, bridge to future EDAR | NOT DISCLOSED | — | inferred |
| Repsol Cartagena | ES | ④ Mancomunidad Taibilla (paraphrase only) | 332,000 | 22.1 | unverified |
| H2 La Joya | ES | ⑤ EDAR Guadalhorce | 432,432 | 16.4 | verified |
| Iberdrola Puertollano | ES | ⑧ | — | — | genuine gap |
| GET H2 Nukleus | DE | ② Ems, wet recirculating | 1,200,000 | 24.5 | verified |
| EWE Emden | DE | ④ municipal, DRY cooling | not disclosed | — | verified |
| NEOM | SA | ⑥ third-party RO, zero liquid discharge | not disclosed | — | supplier verified |
Benchmarks
Stoichiometric minimum 9 L/kg · process water incl. purification ~10–11 L/kg · realistic all-in ~20 L/kg temperate, ~30 L/kg Mediterranean, up to 39 L/kg hot arid. IRENA/Bluerisk: PEM 17.5 · alkaline 22.4 · ATR-CCUS 24.4 · SMR-CCUS 32.2 L/kg. Desalination adds under $0.10/kg H₂ — about 1% of LCOH. This section is written around permit risk, brine and social licence, not cost.
08The week's movements
| Date | Item |
|---|---|
| 7 Sep | TTF gas hits €75.06/MWh, up 127.0% y/y — fourth straight weekly gain. |
| 6 Sep | Spanish PVPC proxy reaches €221/MWh; negative pricing recurs 11:00–16:00 CEST, trough ‑€8.6/MWh. |
| 4 Sep | German day-ahead power crashes to €42.14/MWh, briefly ‑€19/MWh at 14:00 CEST, on a wind surge — decoupled from TTF. |
| 4 Sep | ITM Power FY2026 results reportedly dated 14 September — single-sourced, unconfirmed. |
| 4 Sep | EU ETS carbon at €84.18/t, +1.85% WoW — first move after a flat week. |
| 1–7 Sep | German Klimaschutzverträge round 2 deadline extended two days, to 9 September. |
| 1 Sep | ABO Energy and City of Oulu sign cooperation agreement for up-to-600 MW hydrogen plant, Finland. |
| 27 Aug | Asian/Australian Renewable Energy Hub confirmed cut 26 GW → 15 GW, ammonia dropped — resolves last week's open item. |
| 28 Jul | Moeve Carteia reframed as reopened public consultation; capex now €3.067bn/2 phases; transmission line to 1.11 km. |
| 16 Jul | Repsol Cartagena's DIA confirmed published in BORM on this date — water text still unlocated. |
Negative findings, stated deliberately: no new global FID, no new confirmed cancellation, no new offtake agreement outside Europe, no 45V/H2Hubs/IRS action, no PERTE ERHA round 3, no H2Med news, no fresher EWI/dena dataset, no 4th Kernnetz package, no fresher refuelling counts anywhere, no new electrolyser OEM order or capacity news beyond the ITM Power date report.
09Watchlist
Carried forward from W36, with movement marked.
| Date | What | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sep | EU auction 4 feedback webinar | unchanged | Happens tomorrow, 10:30–12:00 CEST; precedes the year-end call. |
| 9 Sep | Klimaschutzverträge round 2 closes | moved | Extended from 7 Sep; €5bn budget, no results yet. |
| 14 Sep | ITM Power FY2026 results | new | Single-sourced; would end a 3-edition reporting gap. |
| 17 Sep | Moeve Onuba groundbreaking | unchanged | Andalusia's flagship project moves to construction. |
| 30 Sep | CEF Energy €600m call closes | unchanged | H2Med's next funding window. |
| Autumn | RFNBO delegated act review | unchanged | Worth ~€2/kg on Spanish green hydrogen. |
| H2 2026 | Guadalquivir 20 hm³/yr water tender | unchanged | First hard ceiling on the Andalusian water route. |
| Q4 2026 | New EU H2 Strategy + auction 4 launch | unchanged | €500m, €4/kg ceiling, non-Chinese stack rule. |
| Q4 2026 | AFIR review proposals | unchanged | EAFO refresh lands after the 31 Dec deadline. |
| End 2026 | First Andalusian HRS, Córdoba/Granada | unchanged | HUB LA ISLA H2 check made this week, still inconclusive. |
| Late 2027/28 | Proyecto Catalina FID | unchanged | Up to 2,000 MW, >€2.1bn. |
| End 2027 | The FID cliff | unchanged | Under 10% of 2030-target EU projects at FID. |
| 21 Oct | Nel ASA Q3 results | unchanged | Next CEO-succession checkpoint. |
| — | Australia ARE Hub "halves in size" | resolved | Confirmed 26GW→15GW, ammonia dropped — moved to §08. |
| — | China "second cluster" (Guohong) claims | carried | Programme real; Guohong/100k FCV/¥25 specifics still unverified. |
| — | Moeve Carteia water-rights request | carried | Most exposed water position — 1 GW on provisional rights, 4th edition unresolved. |
| — | German power vs TTF decoupling | new | Power ‑18% WoW while gas +127% y/y — watch if durable. |