German power set a new record on this series' watch — €740.01/MWh at 19:45 CEST on 14 September, as onshore wind collapsed below 0.5GW against 58GW demand, while gas eased back and Moeve Onuba's 17 September groundbreaking reconciled its figures rather than abandoning them. Pedro Sánchez, Teresa Ribera and Juanma Moreno broke ground at Parque Energético La Rábida with the phase-1 numbers restated: 300MW (expandable to 405MW), 45,000 t/yr, €1,000m investment, and — updated — €304m in public support (supersedes the €263m this series carried since spring). TTF gas eased to €76.97/MWh, down ~7.7% week-on-week but still +141.7% y/y, decoupling from German power's new peak — driven by a Dunkelflaute (near-zero wind, low river levels curbing hydro and cooling). On the corporate side, South Africa's Phelan Green e-SAF project reached FID (16 Sept, R12bn/~$735m) — the first green-hydrogen-linked FID this series has found in weeks. And on water, a genuine correction: Repsol Cartagena's water source reclassifies from desalination to municipal supply (Mancomunidad de los Canales del Taibilla, 332,000 m³/yr) after eight editions of press-paraphrase-only sourcing.
1 · Production and pipeline
Global aggregates — IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2026 baseline, unchanged this week
One green-hydrogen-linked FID this week — the first in several editions. South Africa's Phelan Green e-SAF project (Saldanha Bay) reached FID 16 September — R12bn (~$735m), part of a six-project National Green Hydrogen Deal Book unveiled 15 Sept (only Phelan is bankable). No confirmed cancellation found this week. UK's National Gas advanced its 2,414km Project Union pipeline (domestic, not a corridor); ARENA granted A$49m to Hysata for electrolyser manufacturing.
2 · Prices and costs
Input cost drivers, 15–21 September 2026, vs W38 baseline
Gas and German power decoupled this week — TTF eased for the first time in six weeks while German power set a new series high, driven by weather (a Dunkelflaute) rather than gas. H1-September German power is running ≈+79% y/y (€150 vs €84/MWh, Sept 2025). LCOH, HYDRIX/Argus/Platts remain unretrievable for an eighth consecutive week; HYDRIX is now confirmed to sit behind a Tableau widget with no public API. EU auction 4 terms unchanged since the 8 Sept webinar.
3 · Spain and the EU
The ambition gap and the Spanish project pipeline
Moeve Onuba: groundbreaking happened 17 Sept — phase-1 figures reconciled (300MW/45,000t/€1,000m), public support updated to €304m (was €263m). Valley-wide framing (2GW, €2.4bn cumulative Andalusia investment) runs alongside, not instead of, the phase figures. Moeve Carteia: BOJA 182 checked directly — no water-rights decision found, 6th consecutive edition. Repsol Cartagena: water source reclassifies from desalination to municipal supply (Taibilla), 332,000 m³/yr — DIA text itself still unlocated, 8th consecutive edition. H2 La Joya: Ayuntamiento de Antequera formally lodged 11 objections and "rotundly" rejected the project — escalating municipal opposition. PERTE ERHA: 4 Aug award figure reconciles to €274.2m/4 projects via a second MITECO page.
4 · Germany
Project scoreboard, with water source classification per project
A second consecutive quiet scoreboard — no new FID, no new cancellation. Correction: ArcelorMittal Duisburg's raw-iron supply contract with thyssenkrupp Steel ends September 2027, not October 2027 as previously tracked — ~550 of 800 jobs affected. Correction: Klimaschutzverträge round 2 bidding closed 7 Sept, not 9 Sept as previously tracked; still no results timeline given. No Q3 2026 EWI Wasserstoff-Monitor found yet, now overdue for a second edition. No 4th Kernnetz Marktinformationspaket.
5 · Hydrogen refuelling network
Direction of travel, not headcount — track openings, closures and net change
Germany and Spain: COULD NOT RETRIEVE a fresher count — ninth consecutive month stale for Germany. Andalusia: the HUB LA ISLA H2 verification gap, treated as resolved in W38, has reopened — no press corroboration of Phase 1's commercial operation date was found this week, and a project-detail discrepancy surfaced against a 2022 project description. Needs direct reconciliation, not further press search.
6 · Electrolysers
Technology status, manufacturing utilisation, OEM order books, project usage
Technology comparison
Standing technology-reference ranges (IEA/IRENA-consistent industry typicals) — not fresh research this week; included for context.
Manufacturing capacity vs utilisation
OEM order books — this week's standouts
Project usage mapping
ITM Power's results delay is now confirmed via two independent financial-data aggregators — a genuine escalation from W38's "not yet landed" framing. Plug Power's W38 unconfirmed guidance-raise headline is now confirmed via its own IR release. thyssenkrupp nucera's Onuba contract scope reframes as "300MW + 105MW option" rather than "15×20MW modules" — a technical reframing, not a capacity change. EU auction 4's non-Chinese content rule: no finalisation; new context this week on the ~2.5–3x China-vs-West CAPEX gap the rule is meant to manage.
7 · Water intake and climate-relevant project screening
Taxonomy classification, disclosure gap, and permit risk — not cost
This week's genuine correction: Repsol Cartagena reclassifies from ⑥ desalination (3rd-party) to ④ municipal/potable (Mancomunidad de los Canales del Taibilla) — the 332,000 m³/yr volume is unchanged, but the source classification was wrong in every prior edition. Confidence upgraded from press-paraphrase to specialist-outlet DIA-paraphrase; the raw DIA document itself remains unlocated, 8th consecutive edition. Granja de Moreruela (Zamora): combined volume corrected to a more precise 233,911.4 m³/yr (was ~223,000 m³/yr), still ① groundwater/Villafáfila aquifer. Moeve Carteia remains stuck at a 6th consecutive edition with no water-rights decision.
8 · The week's movements
Negative findings, stated deliberately: no new cancellation; no new offtake/supply deal beyond the GH Power item; no new 45V/DOE H2Hubs/IRS action; no new Japan/India/Middle East corridor development; no H2Med/backbone news (CEF Energy call still open); no fresher EWI/dena capacity dataset or 4th Kernnetz Marktinformationspaket; no fresher refuelling-station count for Germany, Spain or Europe — and the Andalusian HUB LA ISLA H2 gap has reopened.